What could be Oli’s next move?

News Analysis

Kathmandu, 14 November: Prime Minister and Nepal Communist Party chairman KP Sharma Oli is facing a very difficult time as senior leaders have developed an alliance against him. Currently, Oli is in minority in the party Secretariat, party Standing Committee and also in the Central Committee. In the party Secretariat, out of the nine members, five members – Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda, Madhav Nepal, JN Khanal, Bamdev Gautam and Narayankaji Shrestha – are against Oli.
In the Secretariat, if Oli will be able to bring Gautam in his camp, he can avoid a crisis for the time being. If Gautam will accept, Oli may offer him the defence portfolio along with the second position in the cabinet hierarchy. Gautam has not formally taken any decision, however, leaders closed to him have remarked that this time Gautam will not betray the Prachanda-Nepal camp.
Oli, on the other hand, has evaluated that Gautam is a leader who can be provoked and used by anybody anytime. Therefore, those leaders in Oli’s camp have become active to convince Gautam to end the present crisis.
Accordingly, Oli has made another attempt to polarize party workers belonging to the former UML party. Most of the former UML leaders and workers are not ready to accept Prachanda’s leadership in the party. To accept Prachanda’s leadership is difficult for Madhav Nepal also. Oli is trying to capitalize on this situation in the party.
Prachanda and Nepal both are the possible candidates to the post of the party chairman. Nepal says that he wants to get political retirement only after becoming the party chairman once. Nepal has already commanded the UML party for more than one and a half decades but at that time he was the general secretary only. During that time, the general secretary, although an executive post, was the second man as there was the post of ceremonial chairman. late Manmohan Adhikari was the ceremonial chairman of the party. Therefore, he wants to get political retirement only after becoming the party chairman.
Prachanda, on the other hand, has the dream to enjoy the supreme post of the NCP. He has dreamed to become the chairman of the largest party in the country. Therefore, he had merged the then Maoist Center with the then UML. Prachanda’s weakness is that he cannot remain as a second man at the party. Prachanda is the person who has remained as the chief of the communist party he had led in the past for around three decades.
Nepal believes, for the time being, he will use Prachanda against Oli and after ousting of Oli, Nepal may offer the PM’s post to Prachanda, but cannot offer the party chairmanship to Prachanda. After Oli, Nepal plans to sideline Prachanda to pave the way for himself becoming the party chairman.
Prachanda is also aware of the situation. He is nowhere in the party without support either from Oli or from Nepal. Another threat is that former UML leaders may come to one place anytime. Prachanda is always worried about this possible situation, therefore, he has always played the role to create distance between Oli and Nepal.
Of late Oli is trying to develop unity among former UML workers. Meanwhile, Oli has already announced that he is not going to repeat in the same position again. His inner plan is to handover the party leadership to the next generation leaders who are already around the sixties. He may float the idea of taking retirement by those who have already enjoyed the post of the PM and also commanded the party if he will get strong support from the next generation leaders in the party.
If Oli will become fail in all above moves, he may initiate an unfortunate action which will finally lead the party towards a split.

 

Virus surge continues as Kathmandu Valley reports 1,207 new cases

Kathmandu, 14 November: As many as 1,207 new cases of the corona virus infection have been reported in Kathmandu Valley on Friday, as per the information provided by the Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP) in its daily media briefing on Friday afternoon.

Among the 1,207 cases detected on Friday, 919 are reported in Kathmandu while 180 cases of transmission have been recorded in Lalitpur and 108 cases in Bhaktapur district, according to the MoHP.

The three districts in the Kathmandu Valley- Kathmandu, Bhaktapur and Lalitpur- are among the districts with the highest number of Corona virus infection. So far, Kathmandu has recorded 16,441 cases while Lalitpur has 2,431 and Bhaktapur 1,267 has infection cases.

The new infections were confirmed through PCR tests conducted across healthcare facilities in the valley including National Public Health Laboratory, Patan Hospital, HAMS Hospital, Star Hospital, Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital, Nepal Korea Friendship Municipality Hospital and Birendra Military Hospital.

People’s News Monitoring Service

Happy Tihar!

On the occasion of Nepal Sambat (New Year) 1141, Tihar and Chhata festivals People’s Review family extends warmest greetings and season’s felicitations to all our readers, friends, well-wishers and advertisers having Hindu belief!

Virus surge continues as Kathmandu Valley reports 973 new cases

Kathmandu, 13 November: As many as 973 new cases of the corona virus infection have been reported in Kathmandu Valley on Thursday, as per the information provided by the Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP) in its daily media briefing on Thursday afternoon.

Among the 973 cases detected on Thursday, 764 are reported in Kathmandu while 126 cases of transmission have been recorded in Lalitpur and 83 cases in Bhaktapur district, according to the MoHP.

The three districts in the Kathmandu Valley- Kathmandu, Bhaktapur and Lalitpur- are among the districts with the highest number of Corona virus infection. So far, Kathmandu has recorded 17,045 cases while Lalitpur has 2,512 and Bhaktapur 1,292 has infection cases.

The new infections were confirmed through PCR tests conducted across healthcare facilities in the valley including National Public Health Laboratory, Patan Hospital, HAMS Hospital, Star Hospital, Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital, Nepal Korea Friendship Municipality Hospital and Birendra Military Hospital.

People’s News Monitoring Service

NCP Secretariat meeting today

Kathmandu, 13 November:  Khadga Oli, the Chairman of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), having no option left than to arrive at a decision to hold the party meetings as demanded by the majority of leaders, has finally agreed to convene the Secretariat meeting today.

Last week, Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and Senior leaders Jhala Nath Khanal and Nepal, Vice-chairman Bam Dev Gautam and Spokesperson Narayan Kaji Shrestha had submitted a letter to Oli demanding the Secretariat meeting.

It is worth mentioning that  Oli is in minority in Parliamentary Party, Secretariat, Standing Committee and Central Woring Committee, therefore, he had been avoiding party meetings.

People’s News Monitoring Service

UNFPA provides IT equipment to CBS for census

Kathmandu, 12 November: The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has handed over Information Technology(IT) equipment to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), as it ramps up its preparations for the 12th National Population and Housing Census (NPHC), due to take place in June 2021 – the first census to be conducted under the new Constitution and federal structure.

The IT equipment worth  Rs.72 million has been procured by UNFPA with UK Aid funding and comprises of 2,250 tablets with power-banks and accessories, 35 laptops, 47 desktop computers, five mobile work-stations, one server, three high resolution printers and relevant software licenses, according to a press release issued by the UNFPA.

People’s News Monitoring Service

Chand’s cadre arrested on extortion charge

Kathmandu, 12 November: Police in Kavrepalanchowk district have arrested a leader of Nepal Communist Party-Maoist led by Netra Bikram Chand aka ‘Biplav’on the charge of extortion.

Madhusudan Bajagain was apprehended from his residence Shankhupatichaur in Dhulikhel Municipality-12 for his alleged involved in extortion, according to the District Police Office. Bajagain has admitted to police about his association with the Chand-led party that has been declared a terrorist outfit by the incumbent government.

People’s News Monitoring Service

Nepali Congress meeting on Friday

Kathmandu, 12 November: To discuss the forthcoming 14th General Convention and other contemporary political issues, the meeting of the main opposition party-Nepali Congress Central Executive Committee is scheduled to take place on November 13

The general convention is scheduled to be held from coming Falgun 7 to 10 but has been impacted by the Corona Virus pandemic.

Earlier, an informal meeting of senior leaders had decided to hand over the responsibility of resolving the internal party dispute to its two general secretaries—Shashanka Koirala and Purna Bahadur Khadka. It is expected that the meeting would endorse it.

People’s News Monitoring Service

Virus surge continues as Kathmandu Valley reports 1,261 new cases

Kathmandu, 12 November: As many as 1,261 new cases of the corona virus infection have been reported in Kathmandu Valley on Wednesday, as per the information provided by the Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP) in its daily media briefing on Wednesday afternoon.

Among the 1,261 cases detected on Wednesday, 976 are reported in Kathmandu while 2042 cases of transmission have been recorded in Lalitpur and 81 cases in Bhaktapur district, according to the MoHP.

The three districts in the Kathmandu Valley- Kathmandu, Bhaktapur and Lalitpur- are among the districts with the highest number of Corona virus infection. So far, Kathmandu has recorded 17,164 cases while Lalitpur has 2,506 and Bhaktapur 1,275 has infection cases.

The new infections were confirmed through PCR tests conducted across healthcare facilities in the valley including National Public Health Laboratory, Patan Hospital, HAMS Hospital, Star Hospital, Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital, Nepal Korea Friendship Municipality Hospital and Birendra Military Hospital.

People’s News Monitoring Service

NCP leaders continue to stage drama

By Our Reporter

The prolonged dispute in the ruling Nepal Communist Party though has become costly for the country reeling under coronavirus pandemic has now turned into a cheap drama for the onlookers, who are not associated with that party.

It has been seven months since the dispute in the party surfaced with a short interval in mid-September when the leaders argued that they succeeded to resolve the intra-party dispute. Of course, the first episode of dispute that had begun with leader Bamdev Gautam’s childish demand to become lawmaker and prime minister ended with the nomination of Bamdev Gautam in the National Assembly in September.

The second episode of the drama began by squashing Gautam’s desire of becoming Deputy Prime Minister through a case filed in the Supreme Court. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli fueled the dispute by reshuffling Cabinet and appointing ambassadors, including Dr Yuba Raj Khatwada, without consulting with the party which was the violation of the agreement reached on September 14. In fact, Bamdev Gautam had agreed to become National Assembly members to prevent Dr Khatiwada’s reappointment in the NA and his continuity as Finance Minister. But when PM Oli rewarded Khatiwada by appointing him to the post of Nepal’s ambassador to the USA, it irked not only Gautam but also the Khumalater and Koteshwor residences.

The drama reached its climax after Dashain with party chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and senior leaders holding one meeting after another with an aim of taming PM Oli. But PM Oli opened fire publicly telling that he would not quit and abide by the party instruction. In public speeches and television interviews, he challenged Dahal that the latter was a problem in the party. He even proposed to split the party in consensus after Karnali fiasco. The dispute further deepened when five of the nine Secretariat members held a meeting on Friday and decided to exert pressure on PM Oli to call secretariat meeting. Dahal, Nepal, Jhalanath Khanal, Bamdev Gautam and Narayankaji reached Baluwatar on Saturday to apprise the PM of the decision of the meeting but only tasted his wrath.

In a quick development of the plot, PM Oli invited his critics from the former CPN-UML including Nepal and Bhim Rawal and asked them to help sort out the dispute.

No one knows how the lengthy drama will end, but the cadres of the ruling party are fearing whether the play will culminate in the split of the party in which the former Maoists will severe them from the NCP. However, when the PM, ministers and ruling party leaders are wasting time in the drama, more people are dying of coronavirus in lack of ICUs and ventilators as the government has been applying its full energy in the intra-party dispute.

People’s Review Print Edition

Dispute in NC continues

By Our Reporter

The dispute between the two rival factions in the Nepali Congress has widened but not to the extent of the ruling Nepal Communist Party as party president Sher Bahadur has been regularly holding a meeting with senior leader Ram Chandra Paudel, who leads the rival faction.

Formation of departments just a few months before the four-year term of Deuba as party president was to expire and the distribution of active membership to the new entrants are the main contentious issues in the NC. The situation worsened after Paudel threatened to launch protest against the department formation.

However, on Sunday Deuba and Paudel made an important headway with Deuba telling Paudel that the formed departments could not be dissolved and Paudel telling them not to recognize them. Besides this issue, the two leaders have almost resolved other outstanding issues as reported by the local media. However, it is not likely the party could hold its 14th general convention in mid-February next year, as the party needs more time to complete the convention of the lower level party committee by correcting in the active membership distribution processes.

While trying to resolve the internal disputes, party president had postponed the party’s central committee meeting several times with the latest postponement of Monday’s meeting to Thursday.

COVID-19 cases cross 200,000 marks in Nepal, over 92,000 in Kathmandu Valley

15,278 patients in home isolation, 19384 active cases, 70,000 recoveries in the Valley 

By Our Reporter

Against the expectation of the government authorities, COVID-19 cases crossed 200,000 marks in Nepal this week. The authorities who had claimed that the COVID-19 cases could be limit in 15,000 have not taken any concrete measures to contain the spread of coronavirus, neither had the government increased the health facilities at par the rise in infections. Instead, the government seems busy taking one wrong decision after another and correcting them after the court intervention.

The powerful communist government led by KP Sharma Oli has completely failed to control the virus. Instead of diverting all resources in the fight against the virus, the government seems using its strength the intra-party dispute and to misuse the resources. It is evident from the fact that the Prime Minister and leaders of the ruling party have been holding one meeting after another to resolve the lengthy intra-party feud totally ignoring the pandemic which had killed nearly 1200 people.

Moreover, the government that had decided not to bear the cost of test and treatment of the COVID-19 patients had to correct the anti-constitutional decision after the Supreme Court thwarted its appeal charge fees and drew public criticism. A Cabinet meeting on Monday reportedly withdrew the controversial decision, which came as a setback for the government.

In fact, going by the news about the prolonged dispute between the Prime Minister Oli and other leaders of the ruling party, one could realise how the government and the ruling party are indifferent to the pandemic. Nepali people had never had such an irresponsible government in its known history. The COVID-19 patients are dying in lack of ICUs and ventilators, people are dying hungry in lack of a job, but the government has been wasting time in dispute within the party and the Mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City prohibiting individuals and organisations from feeding the people free of cost.

When the cases are steadily rising across the country, with Kathmandu becoming epicentre, the government has taken no measure to contain the spread. Instead, it discouraged people from testing by charging testing fees, as a result, the daily tests dropped to around 10,000 from nearly 20,000 before Dashain. On Monday, 11,177 Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) tests were conducted across the country. When there are fewer tests, the cases look fewer, but the reality may be otherwise. More infected people in the community spreading the diseases.

On Monday 2,751 new cases of COVID-19 and 18 deaths were confirmed across the country.

Of the new cases, 1,428 patients were recorded in the three districts of the Kathmandu Valley, which means the valley’s figures account for over 55 per cent of the national caseload of Monday.

The three districts’ total caseload reached 90,155 with 19,000 active cases as of Monday. Majority of the patients are staying in home isolation with Kathmandu having the highest number of patients, 11,651, living in home isolation. Of the three districts of the valley, Kathmandu continues to witness more cases as well as deaths. As of Monday, Kathmandu has 73,203 cases, including 15,982 active cases, 56,946 recoveries and 275 deaths.

Likewise, Lalitpur has 10,356 cases with 68 deaths and Bhaktapur 6,598 cases with 72 deaths.

According to the MoHP Situation Report on Monday, Nepal’s caseload has jumped to 197,024 with 1,126 fatalities, and the number of active cases has reached 36,174. Of them 29,836 were on home isolation, 411 in the intensive care units (ICU) of hospitals and 83 were receiving treatment with ventilator support.

Rhino poaching increases

By Our Reporter

Killing and natural deaths of more rhinos in the Chitwan National Park have worried the conservation officials. The poaching of the rare one-horn rhino has increased after the government imposed lockdown in March this year.

The officials said that the poachers have become active due to lack of regular patrols and security activities during this coronavirus pandemic. They suspect that the poachers who were released from jail after completing their terms were being used to poach the rhinos.

Former Chief Conservation Officer of CNP Ram Prit Yadav said that those who had recently completed their jail terms for poaching rhinos had returned to their former occupation after their release.

Recently, bodies of a mother rhino and her calf were found in Chitwan, and they were suspected to have killed by poachers.

After finding the two bodies and suspecting the involvement of the freed poachers in the killing of rhinos, the CNP has started discussing measures to employ the released poachers in conservation activities.

It is estimated that the two rhinos were killed about three months ago when shots were fired from inside the park.

A Nepal Army patrol team has found the carcasses of the rhinos in the western part of CNP. According to park security personnel, the mother, who had just given birth to the calf, was killed.

While managing the bodies of the dead rhinos, skeletons of more rhinos without horns were also discovered in the same area.

Earlier, on the third week of August, a rhino was found dead in the same area after being killed by poachers. Park security personnel have suspected that the poacher killed the rhino as it was found with head and back injuries.

In all, 12 rhinos were found dead in the current fiscal year alone, out of which four were killed by poachers. In the last four years, CNP has recorded zero poachings of rhinos. But increasing numbers of poaching have added worries to the conservation officials.

In the fiscal year 2076/77, a total of 26 rhinos died in the park — all of them of natural causes.

According to the 2015 census, there are a total of 645 rhinos in Nepal. Of them, 605 rhinos were found in Chitwan National Park alone. The highest number of rhinos in the park died in the fiscal year 2058/59. Of the 48 dead rhinos found in the year, 37 were killed by poachers, according to the park officials. For the past few years, the park had been celebrating zero poaching years.

Bhai Tika at 11:37, Monday

By Our Reporter

Nepal Panchanga Nirnayak Samiti ( Calendar Determination Committee) has fixed the auspicious time for Bhai Tika at 11:37 am on November 16.

Committee’s member-secretary Surya Prasad Dhungel informed that 11: 37 am would be the most auspicious time for offering and receiving the Bhai Tika.

Tihar, the festival of light, colour and flower, which is known as Yamapanchak, is being celebrated from Trayodashi to Dwitiya of Kartik Sukla Paksha from November 13 to 16.

The first day of Yamapanchak, Kaag Tihar (worship of crows), is celebrated on November 13 and along with Dhanvantari Jayanti on the same day.

Likewise, Kukur Tihar (worship of dogs) will be celebrated on November 14 in the morning while Laxmi Puja also falls on the same day in the evening.

The Gai Tihar (worship of cows) will be celebrated on November 15 and Mha Puja also falls on the same day in the evening.

The Gobardhan Puja or ox worship will be held in the morning on November 16 followed by Bhait Tika a few hours later.

People’s Review Print Edition

Broadband Internet service reaches 76.58% of population

 

By Our Reporter

Subscribers of broadband Internet service have reached 22,879,727 by mid-September 2020. According to the MIS report of Nepal Telecommunication Authority (NTA), this number was 76.58 per cent of the total population as estimated by the Central Bureau of Statistics.

The MIS report further revealed that the number of subscribers of broadband service had increased by 17 per cent between mid-September 2019 and mid-September 2020. By mid-September 2019, the number of subscribers of broadband service was 19,540,873, which was only 66.21 per cent of the total estimated population at that time.

Of the total subscribers of broadband service, the market share of mobile broadband is 74 per cent while that of wired and wireless fixed broadband is 24 per cent and 1 per cent respectively.

During the period of one year, the access of people to mobile broadband service has increased to 56.42 per cent from 51.38 per cent. During the same period, the subscription of fixed wired broadband has increased to 19.40 per cent of the total population from 14.02 per cent

The number of 4G subscribers has increased to 5,516,454 from 4,355,625 a year ago.

Of the total market of broadband service, Nepal Telecom has the highest shares of 50 per cent followed by Ncell which shares 28.8 per cent of the total market of broadband service.

Nepal Telecom (NT), the government-owned telecommunication service provider, is providing broadband service through mobile broadband (3G, 4G, EVDO) and wired and wireless fixed-line while Ncell is providing mobile broadband (3G and 4G) only.

Based on subscription, Internet service providers (ISPs) share only 20.8 per cent of total broadband service in the country. ISPs are providing wired and wireless fixed-line broadband service.

Due to online classes in schools and colleges and the increasing trend of working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic, the subscription of both mobile and fixed broadband has increased significantly in recent days.

People’s Review Print Edition

Joe Biden elected the new president of USA

 

By Our Reporter

Joe Biden of Democratic Party has been elected as the 46th president of the USA. In a tight contest and lengthy counting, the media projected Biden’s victory only on Saturday five days after the election day. Similarly, Kamala Harris has been elected as the first woman vice president.

Biden elected with pledging to restore calm and truth. Donald Trump, the sitting president, has become one of the few leaders to face defeat after completing a single term.

In a victory speech Saturday night in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware, Biden said he was humbled by the trust America had placed in him and reached out to those Americans who did not vote for him.

“I understand the disappointment tonight. I’ve lost a couple of times myself. But now, let’s give each other a chance,” Biden said. “This is the time to heal in America.”

California Sen. Kamala Harris, his running mate, who will make history as the first woman, the first Black person and the first person of South Asian descent to become vice president, noted the significance of her place on the stage Saturday night.

“While I may be the first woman in this office, I will not be the last, because every little girl watching tonight sees that this is a country of possibilities,” Harris said, according to CNN.

However, Trump has not yet conceded his defeat and he has been trying to have a long legal battle stating that Biden won with illegal ballots.

Interestingly, many of the world leaders like Putin of Russia, Xi of China and the presidents of Mexico and Brazil have not yet congratulated Biden for his victory.

With the election of Biden in the USA, there might be a policy shift in the fight against COVID-19 within the USA and climate change issues which were opposed by Trump. Likewise, Biden’s victory has pleased the American black and immigrants. However, for Nepal, and other small and least developed countries, there might not be any changes in the US policies.

People’s Review Print Edition

32 Tibetan Buddhists awarded doctorate in Beijing

Thirty-two Tibetan Buddhists received the “Tho Ram Pa” degree, a senior academic title of Tibetan Buddhism, on Wednesday in Beijing’s High-level Tibetan Buddhism College of China.

A total of 33 scholars from different sects of Tibetan Buddhism, such as Nyingma and Gelug, have completed three years of study and graduated from the college.

After qualification examinations, taking exams, and defending their dissertations, 32 among all received the degree, which is equivalent to a doctorate.

Jamyang Losang Jigme Tubdain Qoigyi Nyima, a living Buddha and the president of the college, presented the monks with their graduation certificates and degrees.

The scholars who received degrees paid religious homage to the 11th Panchen Lama Bainqen Erdini Qoigyijabu, also vice president of the Buddhist Association of China, after the degree awarding ceremony.

The ceremony was the 16th of its kind, and a total of 240 monks have received the “Tho Ram Pa” degree so far.

Xinhua

Issues of human rights, religion likely to emerge in future India-US ties

By Qian Feng

Joe Biden was projected to be the winner of the 2020 presidential election after he gained the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, according to multiple US media outlets. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday congratulated Biden on his victory on Twitter, praised Biden’s vital contribution to strengthening India-US ties during his tenure as vice president, and said he looks forward to closer cooperation between the two countries once again to take the relations to a higher level.

Cooperation will remain the main theme of US-India relations in the next stage after Biden becomes the president as the overall direction of ties between the two countries will not change simply due to who sits in the Oval Office. The sustained warming of US-India relations over the past two decades began with former US President Bill Clinton’s visit to India in March 2000. The first US-India military cooperation agreement was completed under the former US president Barack Obama’s administration. Obama also supported India’s bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. In a policy paper released by the Biden Campaign in August, Biden has expressed the importance he attaches to a cooperative relationship with India, strategically, economically and on security.

Likewise, the new US government won’t have much change on the general policy of the Indo-Pacific region, except for a possible adjustment over the name of Trump’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. It will be very likely to become a 2.0 version of Obama administration’s Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific strategy to some extent, where New Delhi will continue to be expected to play an important role.

Surely, differences will still exist while the cooperation between the two countries keeps getting stronger. During Trump’s presidency, differences between the two sides have been mainly about trade. Yet probable future disputes between the US and India may center more on issues of human rights and religious freedom. Biden has also been speaking out against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi government’s human rights violation problems. Therefore, the trade dispute between the US and India may be eased during Biden’s term, but contradictions and differences on religious freedoms and human rights will enlarge.

It is within the realm of possibility to forecast that US-India relations may suffer severe strains in the future based on past tensions between the two over the past 20 years. Even with recent military cooperation, there are no guarantees of long term resolve.

To better deal with India’s controversial human rights issues, the future Biden administration may ask vice president-elect Kamala Harris, an Indian American, to manage negotiations with the Modi government. She may be asked to exert pressure on New Delhi to make compromises on relevant issues as Washington wishes.

Harris, as US’ first female and vice president of South Asian descent, is expected to play an important role as a bridge between the communication between the US and India on bilateral diplomatic issues – and even with South Asian regional issues.

When it comes to the border standoff between China and India, the incoming Biden administration will also probably not take a markedly different stance from the Trump administration. Both Democrats and Republicans are clear that a long-term confrontation and deteriorated relationship between China and India will be of great benefit for the development of the US-India relations – all the while knowing that the tensions between China and India will unlikely lead to a war – at least in the short term, nor will it bring a deadly hit to peace and stability in the region.

Biden’s campaign in particular mentioned China in his administration’s Indo-Pacific plan, in which the US would work with India to support a rules-based and stable Indo-Pacific region where no country, including China, is able to threaten its neighbors with impunity. It is almost certain that Biden will keep up a tough stance with China with some differences on the specific measures that the Trump administration introduced. This will also further boost its cooperation with India on China related issues.

The author is director of the research department of the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn 

Global Times

 

India’s horrible year just got worse, it has fallen behind Bangladesh

By Amit Jain

Not only has it failed to arrest the spread of COVID-19, it has also failed to turn around a sagging economy. The wind appears to have gone out of its sail. Unemployment is rising. Graduates entering the workforce find the jobs they prepared for no longer exist.

According to the International Monetary Fund, India will see more than 40 million citizens slip back into extreme poverty this year as its economy shrinks by 10.3%. If that was not all, India lost 20 soldiers killed in hand-to-hand combat with Chinese troops. Yet nothing has been more bruising to India’s national pride than the news that its per capita gross domestic product is set to fall below that of Bangladesh. That has come as a rude shock.

People of my generation born shortly after Bangladesh was created in 1971, saw the country as a poor “cousin” living on financial aid. But that distorted image shrouded its slow but steady progress. In less than thirty years, Bangladesh increased average life expectancy at birth by 14.1 years, reduced extreme poverty by more than half, and increased per capita income threefold.

When I first visited Bangladesh in 1999 it had already scored its first success over poverty with microfinance helping scores of women become entrepreneurs. The telecom sector was booming and even the condition of its roads had improved. Politics was still messy but Bangladesh was getting some things right.

First, it allowed civil society to step in where the state was failing. Second, it made the workplace safe for women. Third, and most notably, it nipped terrorism in the bud. Such factors combined with a spell of macroeconomic stability has allowed light manufacturing to flourish. Bangladesh now exports 7% of the world’s apparel and footwear.

A value chain is the series of stages in the production of a good or service where each stage adds value to the previous one. When it takes place across borders it becomes a global value chain. By focusing on an activity where it had the widest margin of competitive advantage, Bangladesh succeeded in creating what India has largely failed to do — mass formal employment.

Garment factories now employ over 3.6 million workers of who, more than half, are women. Wages may be low but for those working in Bangladesh, such jobs offer the kind of income, dignity, and security that informal work does not. This became vividly apparent in March when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared a nationwide lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic and unwittingly triggered an exodus of daily wage migrants from urban centers.

As transport came to a standstill thousands were forced to make the long march home in desperation. Their plight makes a strong case for India to accelerate manufacturing. But it cannot do so by relying mostly on promotion campaigns. If Modi’s Make in India policy is to succeed, it needs to start with creating conditions in which low-margin mass manufacturing can move millions into formal employment in the shortest frame of time.

But can India replicate Bangladesh and turn value chains into vehicles for job creation? Yes, it can. Take eastern India, where most daily wage workers come from. It has long been a drag on India’s development performance.

Bihar, West Bengal, and Assam are among the poorest, least industrialized, and most densely populated states of India. If they could be turned into engines of economic growth, India could catch a second wind. This will require doubling down on something that people in such places can do better than anyone else.

The region that straddles present-day Dhaka once produced the finest Muslin cloth the ancient world had ever seen. Flaunting it was a statement of taste and luxury. When Bangladesh began stitching for high street fashion it brought an ancient craft into modern life. Perhaps, there is something here to learn from.

Dhaka enjoys preferential tariff treatment from its buyers and a narrow wage rate advantage over India. But as it inches toward becoming a middle-income country it will begin to lose that advantage. At some point shifting garment manufacturing to India may become viable. This is referred to as the flying geese phenomenon. Easing trade with Bangladesh could accelerate that process.

Sadly, under Modi, India has shown little appetite for that. It has instead raised import duties. Yearly trade between the two is barely $10 billion. Traders struggle with delays. Goods need to be unloaded and reloaded at border checkpoints. India has recently pulled out of a regional trade bloc championed by Japan, a strategic partner that Modi has wooed. That is a pity. The spillover impact that Japanese investments in Bangladesh could have on eastern India is extraordinary.

Tokyo has already put $390 million at stake. It is now helping construct a four sq. km Special Economic Zone near Dhaka. If successful, India could lose out as a new manufacturing hub for Japanese companies in South Asia. The best chance of unlocking the economic potential of India’s impoverished east is climbing a job-creating value chain and closer economic integration with Bangladesh.

Amit Jain is a Singapore-based consultant who helps clients navigate frontier markets and fragile states. 

South Asian Monitor

The Light

Editorial

Three decades of political excess and indulgence has this year reduced the festival system to mere form. Shrinking pockets have been disguised in Covid convenience where social distancing, self-isolation and rising death numbers close homes for domestic festivities and public revelries. This is perhaps the darkest period in Nepali history so let there be life. After all, the Tihar is a festival celebrating death and Yama Panchak is ingrained with the realization that after darkness there is light so let there be light. This Diwali, for one reason or the other there is hope and so there is light. The country cannot afford to sink further. Our politicians have exhausted their public goodwill and credibility. They have reduced our festivities to one deemed excessive and unaffordable. Their treatment of the pandemic has been one of sordid formality. The Kleptocracy has exhausted monopolized resources and exhausted it. The compulsion to run the state—that is what politicians want—has now been proven an un-escapable burden. They are stuck with a sick state that they helped degrade until the light enters as a political alternative. Attempts to show that there is an alternative in other leaders and governments within parliament and the system are popularly scoffed at as feeble attempts to retain the monopoly. It is the monopoly that does and will do more harm and the people are aware of it so let there be light.

At least, let there be light because its elusive warmth brings us hope. Let not the hopes be trashed as have been the case for the past so many years where foreign machinations and organizational strangleholds have reduced the country to mere a ragtag version of its history. The oomph is lacking for a religious season which had traditionally been lightened by revelry. A population enthused by a false sense of modernization has had to be dragged through the extremes of politics from partisan destabilization, foreign interventions both overt and covert, civil war and the wanton destruction of painfully built structures with scarce investments. Floundering as the country is with the dislocation of national leadership capabilities, the disorder threatens to spill across the border heightening the neighborhood’s concerns. It is this that scares the knowledgeable. The disorientation of a population of a destitute population must now necessarily turn to the streets. The fear that this will heighten the disorder notwithstanding, the growing understanding as in Tihar is that darkness must necessarily be followed by light. Let Tihar bring light. Let the darkness be chased away by light. Let the streets demand hope. Let the population ask for a light. Happy Diwali.

People’s Review Print Edition