Ceasefire in NCP

News Analysis

By Pushpa Raj Pradhan

A ceasefire has been witnessed in the ruling Nepal Communist Party after months-long dispute between Prime Minister and party chairman KP Sharma Oli and another chairman Pushpakamal Dahal.

After the two meetings between the two chairmen held on 13 and 14 August at Baluatar, PM’s official residence, they have constituted a six-member task force to end the dispute in the party.

PM Oli’s standpoint:

Even after the warning of splitting the party, PM Oli has denied responding to the demand of the Dahal-Nepal camp in the party. The Dahal-Nepal camp had demanded Oli’s step-down from the post of the PM and party chairman. Later, the Dahal-Nepal camp had asked Oli to quit one post only. Oli rejected this demand also. For some time, there were no talking relations between Oli and Dahal.

Finally, Dahal agreed Oli’s proposal which is similar to the proposal presented by Bamdev Gautam.

According to highly placed party sources, Oli’s latest proposal is based on the following points:

1. Oli will develop an environment for early unity national convention.
2. Oli will not contest the party election, however, will support Dahal to elect him to the post of the party chairman.
3. Along with the announcement of the unity national convention, a national convention preparation committee will be formed under the chairmanship of Dahal.
4. Oli will remain as the chairman until the unity national convention and he will remain to the post of the PM until the next general elections.

Dahal’s flexibility:

Dahal has okayed the latest proposal of Oli and to give the formal shape to the agreement, the six-member task force has been constituted by including two members each from different three groups in the party – Oli camp, Dahal camp and Madhav Nepal camp.

Nepal’s doubt: 

Madhav Kumar Nepal, who is leading a strong group in the party, has become suspicious from the latest move of Dahal. If Dahal will shift the camp towards Oli, Nepal will become weak. Nepal had planned to develop a long-term alliance with Dahal so that Oli could be cornered from the party forever.

If Oli and Dahal will join hands, Nepal will become weak in the party. The Oli-Dahal camp will dominate the unity national convention and the Nepal camp will be cornered in the party.

Dahal’s political future:

Dahal, who led Maoist groups in different names solely for decades, is unable to secure the supreme post in the present unified Nepal Communist Party. His past performance demonstrates that he has always remained in the supreme post of the party and he has no wish to remain in any lower posts. Therefore, Dahal is seeking assurance for his supreme position in the NCP.

Practically too, presently, he is in an odd position. There are many cases related to violation of human rights during the insurgency period and also cases of corruption against him. The Supreme Court and the CIAA may open these files kept impending anytime if Dahal will have no position either in the ruling party or in the opposition party. Therefore, Dahal needs position.

PM Oli is aware of the weaknesses of Dahal. Therefore, Oli didn’t surrender even after he faced a very critical situation in the party. Oli took a stance for not resuming the party standing committee meeting and resolving all the disputes from the party secretariat meeting.

Responding to Oli’s demand, the party secretariat meeting took place on 17 August. The meeting formalized the decision of the two chairmen in constituting a six-member task force.

What next?:

It has not become clear on the future role of Dahal. Whether he will join the Oli camp or Nepal camp, it is not sure. Nevertheless, it is clear that Oli is not going to quit any of the posts and if Dahal or Nepal will perform non-cooperation, he will run the government one-sidedly. Oli is even prepared to reshuffle his cabinet. He has developed two lists of the new cabinet members. If Dahal and Nepal will perform non-cooperation, in that situation, Oli will oust Dahal and Nepal confidant ministers including Dahal’s daughter-in-law Bina Magar. If Dahal and Nepal will perform cooperation, in that situation, he will reshuffle the cabinet by including those in the Dahal and Nepal camps.

In conclusion, until now, the dispute in the party has not been ended, however, a ceasefire situation has been witnessed.

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