As Things Stand

The ball Prime Minister K.P. Oli set rolling last week with a constitutional amendment move is said to have rebounded in his withdrawals of the amendments. But, let’s face it. The ball is rolling still. The fun part of the show is that K.P. still retains the initiative. The fact of the matter is that subsequent events appear to have surfaced the very undercurrents of Nepali politics that K.P.’s presidential edicts were designed to have uncovered. ‘The other parties’ for which Oli was said to have introduced the amendment easing party splinters showed their colors in the supposed unification of the tarai parties. The other amendment regarding opposition representation in the constitutional council brought Congress party chairman Sher Bahadur Deuba into his council once more. Oli’s scrapping of the edicts within hours of presidential promulgation did something else though. It revealed the extent of alignments against him and his government from none other than his own party sources. Oli will now time his move to address what has so far remained a subterranean issue in his own party. The mounting issues against him to be addressed by the central committee will have to be tabled in agenda to be agreed upon by the party secretariat not sitting as yet at time of writing whereas what has been sitting are individual one to one meets between Oli and the rest. These have merely increased speculation on the prime minister’s options. It is said that Oli may have to surrender both party chairmanship and his prime minister’s post. This is one extreme. The other is that he may either leave the prime minister’s post or the party chairmanship.

It is both these options that draw attention to the need for party concurrence on Oli’s replacement and it is this that bodes Oli well. As things stand, we are told that three former prime ministers in his own party, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Madhav Nepal and Jhalanath are arrayed against him. There is the other former prime minister Baburam Bhattarai recently salivating for the post what with the supposed unification of the tarai parties. Of course, there is aspirant Bam Dev Gautam as well. The numbers game alone will allow Oli the initiative and Nepali politics will see much a slip by time doomsday predictions for Oli turn true. A telephonic conversation between President Bidya Bhandari and her Chinese counterpart, for example, is being given quite a weightage amidst these calculations especially in the background of the controversy surrounding the promptness of the presidential edict. Also, it is said, Baburam Bhattarai in the race is a non starter since the party he is said to have united with his southern mentor has yet to take shape practically, something perhaps Oli has a hand in. Bam Dev is merely a distant aspirant since he has yet to enter the house to be a serious contender to Oli. This leaves space for Pushpa Kamal, Madhav Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal. The last two must be assuaged as former UML comrades in arms. As things stand, therefore, Oli has to time himself between the party secretariat meet, the party central committee meet and the summoning of the budget session of parliament. He may be pressed, no doubt and his support dwindling. But the ball he has set rolling has many a bounce to meet yet.