By M. R. Josse
KATHMANDU: What if incumbent American President Donald J. Trump fails in his bid in November for re-election to a second term? This is a question that has increasingly come to the fore in the public discussion domain, and not only in the United States.
Though there are, of course, only two possibilities – his being re-elected or losing to the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden – there is so much riding on its outcome that the heightening interest on it is only natural.
3 NOVEMBER ELECTION
For one thing, the office of the president of the United States is arguably the most important political job in the world given America’s unmatched economic, military, and technological prowess, conjoined with its awesome politico-diplomatic global reach.The unconventional, controversial nature of Trump – and the fact that the election will be taking place amidst a virulent pandemic of which America has, as of this writing, taken the hardest blow – imbues the electoral competition with something of a sailing-through-unchartered-waters quality.
Besides, the widespread disenchantment with, and prolonged nationwide protests against, the Trump administration triggered by the Black Lives Matter movement must be factored into any attempt to assess Trump’s prospects, as also the grave economic impact of Covid-19.
Notably, one hundred days before the 3 November poll, Biden has a nearly double-digit lead in an average of polls for more than a month, as per The New York Times. This is, for Biden, a commanding advantage in the race for the White House, an edge that shows no signs of abating.
One is furthermore reminded by America’s most quoted daily that the last time a candidate had such a large advantage for so long was nearly 25 years ago when Bill Clinton (Democrat) led Bob Dole (Republican).
Though pollsters prior to the 2016 election got their sums horribly wrong predicting a Hilary Clinton electoral triumph, the polls then showed, four months prior to E-Day, her leading Trump by just four percentage points. Now the corresponding figures are not only much higher but have continued to be that way for more than a month.
While one is well aware that predicting the outcome of American presidential elections can be a risky proposition, some recent pointers in that regard are worth taking into account. High in that shortlist is the fact that Trump himself now seems to believe that a Biden victory cannot be dismissed as baloney.
There is, then, the telltale efforts of the Trump campaign, in recent months, to play up the possibility that mail-in ballots – a big deal in an election season during a pandemic – don’t work, not to mention that Trump’s ‘base’ has for long been raucously vocal playing up the possibility of illegal voting and voter fraud, not to mention extraterritorial intervention in the electoral process, to favor Biden.
No less noteworthy are Trump’s recent actions. One is the cancellation of the once-hyped, four-day in-door Republican National Convention slated for Jacksonville, Florida in August, on grounds that such a large gathering, for so long, in a state that has seen an alarming recent spike in coronavirus cases, is just not advisable.
The other is Trump’s belated donning of a mask in public and, even more so, his open admission that the impact of the pandemic is likely to get “much worse before it gets better.” Both fly in the face of his hitherto persistently nonchalant stance belittling the need for face coverings and his inexplicable downplaying – for months – of the severity of the pandemic on American lives and livelihoods.
INDIA PERSPECTIVE
Though the outcome of America’s 3 November poll will impact all countries to some degree or the other, let us focus here on its broad implications for just two countries: India and China.
To begin with, one must take cognizance that, for months now, India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has seemingly abandoned her carefully calibrated attempt, over the past several years, to cozy up to the United States without unduly rocking her China boat.
The first part of that equation can be dated at least from last year’s ‘Howdy Modi’ shindig in Houston, Texas, followed several months later by Trump’s much-hyped odyssey to India, though the latter’s shine was tarnished by three-days of rioting and killings in the Indian capital during his Indian mission.
Both the splashy ‘Howdy Modi’ event and the timing of Trump’s official excursion to Hindustan were suffused with tons of audible ‘re-elect Trump’ undertones: Modi currying favor with Trump via seemingly guaranteeing support for his re-election bid from Americans of Indian descent, and Trump wishing to consolidate that perceived vote-bank endorsement via a much-ballyhooed India visit several months later.
In any case, the tempo of the Modi-Trump tango was discernibly accelerated by the dust-up between India and China on the Karakorum-Himalayan heights, mid-June, when, as generally perceived worldwide, India got the short end of the stick.
My gut-feeling is that Trump, during his India excursion, may have encouraged Modi to challenge China on the LAC, clashes which occurred there not long after his Indian journey. Or, perhaps Modi may have calculated that taking on China along the LAC would please Trump. In any event, during the weeks-long period of Sino-Indian military confrontation, the United States – as is now being freely reported by the international media – provided India with valuable intelligence support.
To make matters even more lucid, there has been, since, not only a splurge of public comments by a gaggle of American politicians expressing their sympathy for India against China, but also the steady drumbeat of rhetorical support for India from the two other members of the so-called ‘Quad’: Japan and Australia.
Even more significant has been the increased activity of the U.S. Pacific Fleet in the western Pacific and the South China Sea by aircraft carriers, USS Ronald Reagan and USS Theodore Roosevelt.
A former senior Indian naval officer, C. Uday Bhaskar, (Hindustan Times, 24 July), disclosed that the USS Nimitz and the Indian Navy’s eastern fleet recently held a joint exercise in the Indian Ocean and, in doing so, “India and the U.S. have sent a clear signal to Beijing in the domain where it is vulnerable.”
Notably, however, a cautionary note was struck by former Indian Foreign Secretary and former Indian Ambassador to Nepal, Shyam Saran, in an opinion piece (Indian Express, 23 July), arguing, inter alia, “the pursuit of a closer security partnership with the U.S. does not mean that India should follow the U.S. lead on its other important relationships” like Iran.
However, even more germane to this essay is Saran’s revealing caveat: “One should not exclude the possibility of a Democratic U.S. President reviving the Joint Comprehensive Action Programme of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal, concluded in 2015, which President Donald Trump walked out of in 2018.”
Though no one says this loudly in policy or media circles in India today, a discreet move is, I understand, being made to build bridges with the Biden campaign – just in case Trump’s campaign goes south! With so much invested in Trump by Modi, a Biden victory would surely upset the Indian foreign/security apple cart.
CHINA PERSPECTIVE
Not so, in the case of China, as U.S.-China relations at this time are virtually at a point of no return. Indeed, as a New York Times (25 July) summed it up: “Step by step, blow by blow, the United States and China are dismantling decades of political and social engagement setting the stage for a new era of confrontation shaped by the views of the most hawkish voices on both sides.”
The hard line on the American side was showcased by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s 23 July speech – rather incongruously, at the Nixon Library at Yorba Linda, California – calling for the creation of a “new alliance of democracies” to combat what he said is China’s malign intent for the international community. He declared floridly that without immediate action the Chinese Communist Party will “end our freedom” and undermine the “rules-based order”.
Pompeo argued that his policy recommendation was not tantamount to containment of China. “It’s about a complex new challenge that we’ve never faced before: the USSR was closed off the free world. Communist China is already within our borders.”
With Trump limping behind in the polls as the election nears, his administration has been lashing out at China, and, among other things, interfering in China’s domestic realm, be it with respect to Xinjiang, Hong Kong or Taiwan – on the plea of championing human rights.
With the American economy tanking, the Covid-19 pandemic visibly out of control and an unprecedented race relations crisis on hand, Trump has seemingly now only the ‘China card’ to exploit for perceived electoral benefit.
That perhaps explains the recent U.S. naval activities in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, as referred to above, not to mention activation of the Indo-Pacific Security Strategy, at the core of which is this goal: the United States, Japan, India and Australia acting in concert in curbing China’s rising global clout or influence, while safeguarding the U.S.’s leadership in the region.
This is ostensibly the motive behind not just the U.S.’s continuing trade war with China but also explains the abrupt recent U.S. decision ordering the Chinese Consulate in Houston to shut down. It, of course, triggered a similar retaliatory action by Beijing with respect to the American Consulate in Chengdu.
Meaningfully, in the unseemly tit-for-tat game China has invariably reacted to action initiated by the United States and has never backed off. On the face of it, Beijing continues to present a public front of unruffled confidence, as was, for example, exemplified by the 23 July launch of a rover to Mars, signaling a space war with the United States, in as much as NASA is set to launch its own rover to Mars 30 July! Incidentally, China’s Mars’ mission spacecraft, called Tianwen 1, consists of an orbiter, a landing craft, and a rover.
On the politico-diplomatic front, too, Beijing presents a picture of sangfroid and scrupulous planning, including through what appears to be an imminent, game changing master-stroke with respect to Iran. This takes the shape of an agreement under which, according to a ‘final draft’ received by The New York Times, Beijing will invest a whopping U.S. $ 400 billion in investments in Iran over 25 years and receive in return Iranian oil and gas at discounted prices. It reportedly also entails cooperation in the military sphere, as well.
Note that because of years of American anti-Iranian belligerence, Teheran has, willy-nilly, been pushed into the Chinese orbit. According to many knowledgeable analysts, a China-Russia-Iran-Pakistan-Turkey geopolitical grouping is gradually crystallizing.
WHAT IF BIDEN WINS
Be that as it may, Beijing will not be surprised, or saddened, if Trump loses and Biden wins. Though both Democrats and Republicans seem to be broadly on the same page as far as China is concerned, a Biden presidency will possibly be more benign, as far as Beijing goes. In any case, his administration will, in all likelihood, be far more consistent and predictable in its actions and policies than the Trump administration has showcased.
Thus, Beijing will probably be glad to play out a waiting game vis-à-vis Washington if Trump goes down. In that eventuality, it will have a greater lead time to make needed adjustments in policy, if Biden wins: after all, any new American administration takes at least half a year before it really gets down to business with a brand new team of players.
Modi’s India, on the other hand, has banked too much on Trump and his administration to be able to absorb easily the trauma of a Trump defeat. Though India will, in such an eventuality, naturally begin to fashion ties with the Biden administration, in many respects it will have to begin from scratch. It will be fun to watch, and imbibe, useful geopolitical lessons.
The writer can be reached at: manajosse@gmail.com
People’s Review Print Edition
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