News Analysis
Kathmandu, 20 July: After Nepal Communist Party co-chairman Pushpakamal Dahal took an u-turn from the Saturday evening’s understanding between Prime Minister and party chairman KP Sharma Oli, the deadlock in the party has continued again.
On Saturday evening, both the chairmen had agreed to hold unity national convention of the party and Oli to support Dahal to the post of the party chairman, thus, Dahal could become an elected party chairman. Following the meeting, both Oli and Dahal had jointly met President Bidya Devi Bhandari to brief her about the latest situation in the party.
However, the understanding could not last long as the next morning, Dahal changed his tone and clarified that he had no agreement with Oli.
When party leaders Madhav Nepal, JN Khanal and other leaders in Dahal-Nepal camp suspected on Dahal’s latest activities, he immediately changed the tone and declined any agreement with Oli.
Dahal character:
Going through Dahal’s past nature and character, he had remained in the Maoist party’s sole leadership for decades by creating different factions in the party and playing within the party by lifting one section at one time and another faction at another time. He is playing the same strategy in the unified party also.
Dahal, who felt that without division among the former UML leaders, he cannot exist in the party, started his game of widening difference among the former leaders by provoking Bamdev Gautam. He became sympathizer of JN Khanal and tried to become closed to Madhav Nepal. The Nepal camp, although has no trust on Dahal due to his flexible character, tried to use him against Oli.
Dahal-Nepal agreement:
Of late, Dahal and Nepal developed a front to finish Oli’s political future in the party forever. The front has developed the plan of ousting Oli from the post of the PM and the party chairman. The next move, although, Dahal and Nepal have declined, is to call back Bidya Bhandari from the post of the President.
The front has also developed the power-sharing plan. Dahal becoming the sole president of the party, Nepal becoming the PM and assigning JN Khanal as the next President are the plans developed by the front.
Dahal in dilemma:
Dahal’s dream is to become the elected chairman of the unified party, NCP. On the other hand, Nepal has wished to become the chairman of the party once before his political retirement. Earlier, he became powerful party general secretary for more than one and a half decades, however, he was unable to become the powerful party chairman in the then UML. Therefore, he has wished to be elected to the party’s supreme post for once. Nepal is thus preparing to achieve the party chairman’s post.
For the time being Nepal may allow Dahal as the chairman, however, in the unity national convention, Nepal is not going to give walkover the chairman’s post to Dahal.
Nepal camp’s secret plan is to finish Oli by using Dahal and then to sideline Dahal from the party national convention.
Dahal, on the other hand, has not been able to analyze Oli and Nepal’s long-term strategies but tried to play with the two rivals in the party.
Of late, the Oli camp has become very furious with Dahal’s unstable character. Now, even if the Oli camp is destroyed in the party, those members in the Oli camp have started to say that they would support Nepal but will not accept Dahal as the party leader. Dahal’s flexibility has thus strengthened the Nepal camp.
Oli’s strategy:
Oli plans to destroy to the Nepal camp. Therefore, he developed an alliance with Dahal earlier to the general elections. The alliance between the two leaders finally unified the two parties – UML and Maoist Center. The idea was to make weak the Nepal camp by taking the support of former Maoists, which has become counter-productive for Oli for the time being.
NCP’ future:
There is a triangular fight among the leaderships. The reality is that the three leaders are not strong by themselves. If the two out of three will develop alliance, the next one will become weak. Presently, Oli is facing the same problem.
If the conflict in the party will not resolve, Oli will reach the position of “do or die”. At that stage, Oli may take any of the decisions, which may be unfortunate for the party.
People’s News Monitoring Service
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