India & China Must De-Escalate their Deadly Conflict

India & China Must De-Escalate their Deadly Conflict:

Need for Exceptional Mediation

By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

Current Situation

Violent clashes in the disputed Sino-Indian de facto border or Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the high Himalayas of Ladakh [formerly integral part of the semi-autonomous state of Jammu & Kashmir] have raised the stakes for an all-out war. It was the bloodiest fight between the two nuclear-armed countries in decades.

According to the reputed Indian daily The Hindu, the Indian army has conceded that in the night of last Monday, 20 soldiers had died in a hand-to-hand altercation near the LAC in the remote Galwan Valley of eastern Ladakh in the contested Aksai Chin plateau. The Chinese have not yet revealed their own casualties.

Since the so-called LAC was only set-up after the brief and bloody border war of October/November 1962, and is in any case, not at all demarcated on the ground, both countries have blamed each other for the incident (The Washington Post). No soldiers had been killed since 1975, and a death toll of this magnitude had not been reported since 1967.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that Beijing was seeking a peaceful resolution of the dispute (Associated Press/AP).

Expert Analysis

The Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR), Alyssa Ayres opined: “Without the ability to determine where claims begin and end, there’s going to be differences and disputes over the border. And that’s what we see happening. That’s what’s been unfolding over the course of the last month (June 17).

Another analyst, Ashley J. Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said: “Neither PM [Narendra] Modi or President Xi [Jinping] want a war, but neither can relinquish their territorial claims either.”

Need for an Intermediary

But how can the two antagonists be brought back from the brink of a deadly border war – without ruffling the feathers of their now highly charged, extreme nationalistic publics? As The New York Times noted: “[The] rivals may struggle to find a way out of a border clash that could get out of control” (June 18).

As the saying goes: ‘while there’s a will, there’s a way.’

What is needed is a respected intermediary/interlocutor/mediator who will negotiate a complete cessation of any hostilities, and, of course, withdrawal of the two sides troops from their own perceived border or Line of Actual Control. The details will have to be still thrashed out [but in a metaphorical sense!]. The solution is actually in plain sight – elegant and face-saving.

The mediator will have administrative and government experience and can be still active or retired. International exposure is also a must.

She/He will be from a small neutral country in the bilateral conflict, but very pro-active. Excellent relations with both countries will be a necessary, but not sufficient condition.

If the country in question already has experience in acting as the go-between in another country’s domestic travails, so much the better.

If the country in question has vast experience in UN Peace Keeping Operations – this would be an added bonus, especially if its troops had high-altitude experience.

The Road to Peace – in the Himalayas

Once the mediator has been found and accepted by both adversaries [She/He can, of course, volunteer for the delicate and unenviable position], the arduous work can start.

He will first contact the two embassies in his home country and lay out the need for an immediate stoppage of all hostilities.

At the same, he will also inform the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres of his initiative and request full support.

Mobilization of public support in the home country for this extremely significant national security enterprise is of the utmost importance.

If the broker succeeds in inserting neutral peace-keeping troops between the opposing forces, this will be big win for all concerned, and the actual task of demarcating the border could begin.

The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.co